An Integrated Approach to Landslides Risk Management for Local and National Authorities

The University of Belgrade, Faculty of Mining and Geology has been involved in landslide risk reduction activities at the national, regional, and site-specific levels in Serbia for decades. Since 2011 the Faculty has had several activities closely connected with the International Consortium on Landslides, including the International Programme on Landslides Projects 181, 210 and 248, as well as World Centre of Excellency (WCoE) from 2017. In the past decade the Faculty of Mining and Geology was involved in several national, regional and local projects funded by the People of Japan, UNDP and The World Bank on landslide risk reduction in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia. They all closely involved many stakeholders from national to local authorities including Ministries, Local Self Governments, Public Enterprises, Emergency Offices and Civil Protec-tion units. In this report, the activities of WCoE for national and local authorities on landslide risk reduction will be presented

Comparison of expert, deterministic and Machine Learning approach for landslide susceptibility assessment in Ljubovija Municipality, Serbia

Landslide Susceptibility Assessment is becoming a very productive re-search area, wherein different modeling approaches are practiced to delineate zones of the high-low likelihood of landslide occurrence. However, there is no strong consensus on which approach is the most adequate. The reason behind the lack of the general view on the performance of different approaches could be partially explained by the particularity of each study. To evaluate the effi-ciency of different approaches they need to be applied under the same conditions for the same study area. Herein, we examined three different approaches, in-cluding expert, deterministic and Machine Learning, on the example of Ljubo-vija Municipality in western Serbia. The study area has been known as suscep-tible to landslides, and represents good ground for assessing the chosen methods. It is represented by complex geology, prone to landslides that are commonly hosted in thick weathering crust of Paleozoic formations, composed of schists and meta-sediments. Under extreme triggering conditions, such as the one that unfolded in May 2014, these thick weathering crusts saturate, and give way to a variety of landslide and flash-flood processes that we will be focusing on in this study. The application of the expert-approach, through Analytical Hierarchy Process provided a rough assessment map. The deterministic model, which couples simple infinite slope and hydrological model, provided us with lower quality results, when compared to the expert-based one. This could be explained by the assumptions used in the model are too simplistic to generically model a wide range of landslide typology. Finally, Machine Learning approach, using the Random Forest algorithm, provided significantly better results and showed that it can cope with versatile landslide typology over larger scales. Its AUC performance is about 0.75 which is considerably outperforming the AUC values of the other two models, which were up to 0.55, i.e. at the level of random gues

PRIMJENA PARAMETARA STIŠLJIVOSTI U ANALIZI SLIJEGANJA KOMUNALNOG OTPADA

Da bi se omogućilo točnije modeliranje i numerička simulacija dugotrajnog ponašanja odlagališta otpada, što je veoma važno prilikom projektiranja pokrovnog sustava i zatvaranja odlagališta otpada, neophodno je poznavanje parametara stišljivosti. Za razliku od prirodnog tla, glavnu komponentu ukupnog slijeganja komunalnog otpada predstavlja sekundarna kompresija. Zato je određivanje indeksa sekundarne kompresije ili modificiranog indeksa sekundarne kompresije posebno važno. U radu su prikazani neki od rezultata laboratorijskih ispitivanja uzoraka komunalnog otpada dobiveni u edometarskom uređaju, kao i njihova uloga u analizi slijeganja komunalnog otpada. Ispitivanja su izvršena na umjetno pripremljenim uzorcima, uz uvažavanje preporuka koje se odnose na dimenzije korištenih uređaja i veličinu najvećih frakcija u uzorku (EN 1997-2, ASTM 2007-a, 2007-b). Primjenom različitih modela, koji se najčešće koriste za prognozu slijeganja odlagališta komunalnog otpada, izvršena je analiza slijeganja korištenjem dobivenih parametara stišljivosti

Monitoring erozije na području Đavolje Varoši: Projekat „Međa“

Project "Мonitoring оf Erosion on the Đavolja Varoš site ‐ MEĐA: sustainability of natural phenomena in climate change conditions ", was created by a team of young scientists and PhD students from the Faculty of Mining and Geology and Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade. The area of interest is Đavolja Varoš, near Kuršumlija, where all field research will be carried out, while the analysis of the collected data will be done at the Faculty of Mining and Geology and Faculty of Civil Engineering in Belgrade. MEĐA aims to popularize the natural values of the protected area of Đavolja Varoš, but also to raise awareness about the problems of sustainability of this natural phenomenon in the climate change conditions (Naydenova 2012), among the wider and local public, as well as among the scientific circles in the country and abroad. Indirectly, the project encourages local activism through local involvement in the development of this research and its results, responsible planning, interdisciplinary approach to solving problems and approaching the problem of the local population through education, which should be stimulative for the preservation and promotion of the natural heritage. The desired long‐term effect that would result from this research should have a significant part in the overall socioeconomic development of the municipality of Kuršumlija, and the entire Toplica district

Massive Landsliding in Serbia Following Cyclone Tamara in May 2014 (IPL-210)

The IPL project No 210, titled "Massive landsliding in Serbia following Cyclone Tamara in May 2014", started in March 2016. The study area is located in the Western and Central part of the Republic of Serbia territory affected by Cyclone Tamara in May 2014. The project aims to summarize and analyse all collected relevant data, including historic and current rainfall, landslide records, aftermath reports, and environmental features datasets from the May 2014 sequence. Objectives of the proposed project include: collecting all available and acquired landslide data, analysing the trigger/landslide relation in a feasible time span and in the May 2014 event, relating the landslide mechanisms and magnitudes versus the trigger, identifying spatial patterns and relationships between landslides and geological and environmental controls, proposing an overview susceptibility map of the event and numerical modelling of the site-specific location and landslide mechanisms. The Project will be organized by University of Belgrade, Faculty of Mining and Geology and Faculty of Civil Engineering. Project beneficiaries are local community and local and regional authorities. In this paper we will present preliminary results of the proposed project targets performed by project participants

Monitoring erozije na području Đavolje Varoši: Projekat „Međa“

Project "Мonitoring оf Erosion on the Đavolja Varoš site ‐ MEĐA: sustainability of natural phenomena in climate change conditions ", was created by a team of young scientists and PhD students from the Faculty of Mining and Geology and Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade. The area of interest is Đavolja Varoš, near Kuršumlija, where all field research will be carried out, while the analysis of the collected data will be done at the Faculty of Mining and Geology and Faculty of Civil Engineering in Belgrade. MEĐA aims to popularize the natural values of the protected area of Đavolja Varoš, but also to raise awareness about the problems of sustainability of this natural phenomenon in the climate change conditions (Naydenova 2012), among the wider and local public, as well as among the scientific circles in the country and abroad. Indirectly, the project encourages local activism through local involvement in the development of this research and its results, responsible planning, interdisciplinary approach to solving problems and approaching the problem of the local population through education, which should be stimulative for the preservation and promotion of the natural heritage. The desired long‐term effect that would result from this research should have a significant part in the overall socioeconomic development of the municipality of Kuršumlija, and the entire Toplica district

IPL Project 210 Massive landsliding in Serbia following Cyclone Tamara in May 2014 progress report

The IPL project No 210 titled “Massive landsliding in Serbia following Cyclone Tamara in May 2014” started at March 2016. The study area is located in the Western and Central part of the Republic of Serbia territory affected by Cyclone Tamara in May 2014. The project aims to summarize and analyse all relevant collected data, including historic/current rainfall, landslide records, aftermath reports, and environmental features datasets from the May 2014 sequence. Objectives of the proposed project include: collecting all available and acquiring new landslides data, analysing the trigger/landslide relation in affordable time span and May 2014 event, relating the landslide mechanisms and magnitudes versus the trigger, locating spatial patterns and relationships between landslides and geological and environmental controls, proposing an overview susceptibility map of the event and numerical modelling on the site specific location/landslide mechanism. The Project is organized by University of Belgrade, Faculty of Mining and Geology and Faculty of Civil Engineering. Project beneficiaries are local community and local and regional authorities. In this paper we will present progress report of the proposed project targets performed by project participants

Primena AHP i WoE metode u proceni podložnosti terena na kliženje za područje opštine Krupanj

This paper is an example of landslide susceptibility assessment in Krupanj municipality in western Serbia, using two different multicriteria methods: Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Weight of Evidence (WoE). AHP is based on quantified expert judgement on the individual importance of conditioning factors, as geological, morphological and environmental proxies for landsliding. WoE is data-driven, i.e. it uses conditional probability of landslide occurrence to grade conditioning factors by their importance. Validation was performed by cross-referencing with an existing landslide inventory, which was made by field mapping and interpretation of satellite images. Both models have relatively good performance, but WoE has slightly better validation parameters. These results are a solid background for general overview of the landslide susceptibility distribution at municipality scale, and can be successfully used for further landslide risk assessment or large scale planning.U radu su prikazani rezultati dve metode procene podložnosti terena na kliženje: višekriterijumske AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) metode i metode uslovne verovatnoće, odnosno metode težine dokaza WoE (Weight of Evidence) primenjene na područje opštine Krupanj u zapadnoj Srbiji. Validacija dobijenih rezultata procene izvršena je za svaki dobijeni model poređenjem sa realnim podacima evidentiranih pojava nestabilnosti dobijenih terenskim kartiranjem i analizom satelitskih snimaka visoke rezolucije. Nakon toga izvršena je uporedna analiza dobijenih rezultata.Oba modela pokazuju zadovoljavajuću tačnost, gde je statistička metoda dala nešto preciznije rezultate. Rezultati procene podložnosti predstavljaju dobru osnovu za procenu relativnog rizika od procesa kliženja i podlogu za izradu planskih dokumenata opštine Krupanj